Fully Vaccinated Mainers 60% more likely to die, 56% more likely to be hospitalized, if infected
Fully Vaccinated Mainers 60% more likely to die, 56% more likely to be hospitalized, if infected
Dr. Carolyn Falank, a microbiologist, raises new questions regarding vaccine efficacy using Maine CDC breakthrough data
Nick Murray, of Maine Policy Institute, broke a story detailing a letter from Dr. Carolyn Falank, a Microbiologist in one of Maine’s hospital systems, to Dr. Shah. In this open letter Dr. Falank used the ME CDC Breakthrough Data to compare rates of hospitalization and deaths among reported positive tests among fully vaccinated and unvaccinated/not fully vaccinated.
I hope your are sitting down. Her findings are jarring.
Dr. Falank’s findings: of those who tested positive for COVID-19 from August 6 to December 23 of last year, the fully vaccinated were 56% more likely to be hospitalized and 60% more likely to die than those unvaccinated or not fully vaccinated. Click here to read the full letter.
“It has come to my attention that Maine CDC’s own data do not support the widely made claim that receipt of vaccination prevents hospitalization and death from COVID-19 infection.” - Carolyn Falank, PhD
Well, I would say so.
Dr. Falank used the reported Maine CDC’s Breakthrough Data from August 6 through December 23 to make these calculations. She details that - among many reasons - these dates were chosen to give the widest data set, while avoiding the surge of Omicron, wide use of at home tests and the reported “backlog” of cases in January and February.
She tracked the same reports and numbers that I have covered in previous posts, which categorizes tracks breakthrough and total cases, hospitalizations and deaths. By simply subtracting the breakthrough cases, hospitalizations and deaths from the totals categories numbers, she created a separate category of “unvaccinated/not fully vaccinated,” allowing for a simple - yet compelling - comparative analysis.
Below is a screen shot from the letter, showing a summary of the data set.
Again, this is the Maine CDC’s own data, and to my knowledge, the only data that is available to demonstrate real world vaccine efficacy among Mainers.
Hospitalizations and Deaths Per 1000 Cases
Dr. Falank uses this data to create a,“per 1000 cases” rate for hospitalizations and deaths. Below is a screen shot of letter detailing these findings. Dr. Falank shows that - using the Maine CDC’s Breakthrough Data - from Aug 6 to December 23, that for for every 1000 fully vaccinated/breakthrough cases, 22.6 fully vaccinated Mainers were hospitalizations compared to 14.5 hospitalizations within every 1000 unvaccinated/not fully vaccinated cases. According to Dr. Falank’s calculations, the same data set showed that for every 1,000 breakthrough cases, 10.45 deaths among fully vaccinated, compared to 6.54 deaths within in unvaccinated/not fully vaccinated cases.
CDC officials like Dr. Shah and many others use the population as a base for the many rates of hospitalizations and deaths that are publicized. Many times, this is a in a “per 100,000 people” rate. In my - not an expert - opinion, these rates are pointless. This only show how the vaccine is interacting within a generally population, not how it reacts to the virus itself. Further, it’s becoming more and more clear the the vaccine no longer (if it ever did) hinders infection or transmission, as indicated by a 142% rise in breakthrough cases from January to February of this year.
Instead of using the general population as a base, Dr. Falank’s calculations use those who have tested positive with COVID-19. This allows for understanding as to how the vaccine is reacting in the real world when it infects a person that has been fully vaccinated, aka - a breakthrough cases.
This data covers the time period when Governor Mills’ Vaccine Mandates went into effect, gutting our healthcare system in the midst of rising COVID-19 hospitalizations. This real world Maine CDC data does not demonstrate that the vaccines reduced an infected individuals chances of hospitalizations or death.
Dr. Falank closes the letter with a series of questions (make sure to read the full letter here) and makes a key statement at the end that is worth quoting here.
“CDC recommendations have a significant impact and influence on state agencies, healthcare systems, school districts, colleges and private businesses. With this level of influence on the lives of Maine people, the CDC must also assume significant responsibility. It is critical for the public health community to fully inform citizens and politicians, most of whom have no expertise or background in infectious diseases or public health measures. The information given must be honest, transparent, accurate, and devoid of bias. With this, the populace would have more trust in the CDC and DHHS, which in turn would hopefully lead to healthier outcomes for everyone. Moreover, a foundation of solid data is essential for lawmakers to ensure that public health policy and law making is evidence-based.”
Well said, Dr. Falank.
The letter was sent on March 15th. According to Maine Policy Institute’s article, there has been no response from Dr. Shah or the ME CDC.