Dr. Shah “updates” Breakthrough Data
More misrepresentation of data from the ME CDC Director as fully vaccinated Mainers continue to make up majority of cases, hospitalizations and deaths
On Friday, 5/13, ME CDC updated the Breakthrough Data on their website. The new tally showed that from 5/6 to 5/12, 71% of new cases (3851 of 5413), 68.5% of new hospitalizations (50 of 73) and 66.7% of new deaths (18 of 27) were fully vaccinated (SOURCES: 05/06 data and 05/12 data).
But that’s not the only update.
ME CDC added some fancy graphs as well. These graphs show “age adjusted” numbers of cases, hospitalizations and deaths, separating the fully vaccinated from the not fully vaccinated. Upon first glance, it doesn’t look good for the “not fully vaccinated” crowd.
At second glance, one begins to see the evidence of a Dr. Shah breakthrough data hallmark - that is, giving the appearance of transparency while misrepresenting actual data.
Just below these graphs is a note that provides some explanation for how the ME CDC adjusted for age. A feeble attempt at transparency, this note only creates more questions.
With very little detail, it makes the case that because Maine has an older population, they are at a higher risk, regardless of vaccination status. (Wasn’t this the point of the age based vaccine rollout?)
This short paragraph renders the graphs effectively useless for several reasons. (Continued below)
The graphs give no definition for “older” and “younger.” We don’t know the age ranges of either group, nor do we know the what metrics were used to “adjust for age.” This is crucial information to understand this data. Why is it being left out of the public presentation of this “data”? It’s difficult to imagine that this vagueness was anything less than intentional.
Age is indeed a factor when we look at the likelihood of hospitalizations and mortality of a COVID-19 infection - but we have no way of understanding the impact of the vaccine on our older population because of the lack of definition and information provided.
This “age data” by vaccine status is not available anywhere on the CDC website. Dr. Carolyn Falank, a Maine based molecular biologist wrote to Dr. Shah in March, using the ME CDC breakthrough data to demonstrate that from Aug - December of last year, the fully vaccinated were 56% more likely to be hospitalized. She referenced age as a potential confounder and requested the data. Her request was ignored.
The graphs start in March of 2021. ME CDC did not start reporting on Breakthrough Cases until May of 2021. Breakthrough Hospitalizations and deaths were not reported out until August of 2021. Yet the graphs neatly show data accumulating since March of that year, when Maine’s Vaccination Rate was lower than 10%. As I’ve written before, this must be considered misrepresentation of data until it’s addressed by the ME CDC.
Dr. Shah’s 1-on-1 Interview
Earlier last week, Shah gave an interview with Chris Costa of NewsCenter Maine. During the 24 minute exchange, Chris referenced the Breakthrough Data, correctly pointing to the fact that “…about 1/3 of hospitalizations have been breakthrough, since Mainers could first be fully vaccinated.” Shah responded by saying, “I would hold off on jumping to any conclusions about that.”
Dr. Shah teased the big update that would come on Friday, showing the breakthrough data adjusted by age The aforementioned graphs.
Here’s that interaction between Chris Costa and Dr. Shah.
What’s clear from Dr. Shah’s interview and from the presentation of this data, is that Dr. Shah doesn’t want us to look at the actual Breakthrough Data or use it to draw any conclusions.
On the ME CDC data page, the graphs first. One must scroll down a bit to see the actual tally of numbers.
The ME CDC is not being transparent. Dr. Shah is presenting the breakthrough data without necessary definitions, with inconsistent dates, and without disclosing the process of adjusting for age.
Why create these graphs and not others? Why not produce a clear graph showing the week-to-week increases of cases, hospitalizations and deaths for the vaccinated and unvaccinated?
Given these factors - one must ask the next logical question - is Dr. Shah and the ME CDC trying to hide something?
Let’s look back over the last 8 weeks. From 3/25 to 5/12, 72% of hospitalizations (264 of 365) and 78% of deaths (108 of 138) were fully vaccinated. To put it in a different way, during the time period there were 138% more fully vaccinated hospitalizations and 127% more fully vaccinated deaths compared to unvaccinated/not vaccinated.
Dr. Shah says we should, “hold off on making any conclusions,” about this data, and just take a look at his graphs.
Well, here’s a graph of my own, using the data that his office produces, yet refuses to acknowledge.
But let’s not jump to any conclusions.
Another great dig in ME CDCs data. Good catch with the b-through data start dates. I didn't catch that when I was looking at this latest update. That is yet another example of the lack of transparency and full disclosure that would make the data that much more useful. They have so much more data. Like others have said, they just don't want to publish all of it. I wonder why not? The age adjustment graphs are clearly a signal that he and his boss realize the elephant in the room is getting bigger and they need to work harder to obfuscate. I think the work you are doing is contributing to his frantic attempts to downplay breakthrough data. Keep it up!
Thank you ! Why is Shah not sharing facts?!